Changes in stillbirths and child and youth mortality in 2020 and 2021 during the COVID-19 pandemic.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic has been extensively studied for its impact on mortality, particularly in older age groups. However, the pandemic effects on stillbirths and mortality rates in neonates, infants, children and youth remain poorly understood. This study comprehensively analyses the pandemic influence on young mortality and stillbirths across 112 countries and territories in 2020 and 104 in 2021. METHODS: Using data from civil registers and vital statistics systems (CRVS) and the Health Management Information System (HMIS), we estimate expected mortality levels in a non-pandemic setting and relative mortality changes (p-scores) through generalized linear models. The analysis focuses on the distribution of country-specific mortality changes and the proportion of countries experiencing deficits, no changes and excess mortality in each age group. RESULTS: Results show that stillbirths and under-25 mortality were as expected in most countries during 2020 and 2021. However, among countries with changes, more experienced deficits than excess mortality, except for stillbirths, neonates and those aged 10-24 in 2021, where, despite the predominance of no changes, excess mortality prevailed. Notably, a fifth of examined countries saw increases in stillbirths and a quarter in young adult mortality (20-24) in 2021. Our findings are highly consistent between females and males and similar across income levels. CONCLUSION: Despite global disruptions to essential services, stillbirths and youth mortality were as expected in most observed countries, challenging initial hypotheses. However, the study suggests the possibility of delayed adverse effects that require more time to manifest at the population level. Understanding the lasting impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic requires ongoing, long-term monitoring of health and deaths among children and youth, particularly in low- and lower-middle-income countries.

Mixed effects modelling of excess mortality and COVID-19 lockdowns in Thailand.

Accurate mortality data are critical for understanding the impact of COVID-19 and learning lessons from crisis responses. But published statistics risk misrepresenting deaths due to limited testing, underreporting, and lack of subnational data, especially in developing countries. Thailand experienced four COVID-19 waves between January 2020 and December 2021, and used a color-coded, province-level system for lockdowns. To account for deaths directly and indirectly caused by COVID-19, this paper uses mixed effects modelling to estimate counterfactual deaths for 2020-2021 and construct a monthly time series of provincial excess mortality. A fixed effects negative binomial and mixed effects Poisson model both substantiate other studies' estimates of excess deaths using subnational data for the first time. Then, panel regression methods are used to characterize the correlations among restrictions, mobility, and excess mortality. The regressions show that mobility reductions modestly curbed mortality immediately upon imposition, suggesting that aversion of non-COVID deaths was a major aspect of the lockdowns' effect in Thailand. However, the estimates are imprecise. An auto-regressive distributed lag model suggests that the effect of lockdowns was through reduced mobility, but the effectiveness appears to have varied over the course of the pandemic.

Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on excess maternal deaths in Brazil: A two-year assessment.

BACKGROUND: Accurate estimates of the COVID-19 pandemic's indirect impacts are crucial, especially in low- and middle-income countries. This study aims to update estimates of excess maternal deaths in Brazil during the first two years of the COVID-19 pandemic. METHODS: This was an exploratory mixed ecological study using the counterfactual approach. The observed maternal deaths were gathered from the Mortality Information System (SIM) for the period between March 2015 and February 2022. Expected deaths from March 2020 to February 2022 were estimated using quasipoisson generalized additive models, considering quadrimester, age group, and their interaction as predictor variables. Analyses were performed in R version 4.1.2, RStudio, version 2023.03.1+446 and carried out with support from the "mgcv" and "plot_model" libraries. RESULTS: A total of 5,040 maternal deaths were reported, with varying excess mortality across regions and age groups, resulting in 69% excess maternal mortality throughout Brazil during the first two years of the pandemic. The Southeast region had 50% excess mortality throughout the first two years and 76% excess in the second year. The North region had 69% excess mortality, increasing in the second year, particularly among women aged 20-34. The Northeast region showed 80% excess mortality, with a significant increase in the second year, especially among women aged 35-49. The Central-West region had 75% excess mortality, higher in the second year and statistically significant among women aged 35-49. The South region showed 117% excess mortality, reaching 203% in the second year among women aged 20-34, but no excess mortality in the 10-19 age category. CONCLUSIONS: Over two years, Brazil saw a significant impact on maternal excess deaths, regardless of region and pandemic year. The highest peak occurred between March and June 2021, emphasizing the importance of timely and effective epidemic responses to prevent avoidable deaths and prepare for new crises.

Características epidemiológicas, clínicas y funcionales de los pacientes mayores de 75 años ingresados en un hospital terciario durante la primera ola pandémica por SARS-CoV-2 / Epidemiological, clinical, and functional characteristics of patients older than 75 years admitted to a tertiary hospital during the first wave of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic

Fundamento: Analizar las características epidemiológicas, clínicas y funcionales de los pacientes ingresados en el Hospital Universitario de Navarra por infección por SARS-CoV-2, así como los factores predictores de mortalidad, durante la primera ola de la pandemia provocada por este virus. Metodología: Estudio observacional y retrospectivo de todos los pacientes hospitalizados mayores de 75 años entre marzo y noviembre de 2020. Se ha obtenido información sobre múltiples variables, entre las que cabe destacar los síndromes geriátricos previos y que han aparecido durante la hospitalización, o los antecedentes médicos considerados relevantes en la infección por SARS-CoV-2. Se ha realizado un análisis descriptivo de los datos, comparaciones según diversos factores de interés y análisis multivariable para analizar los factores asociados a la mortalidad. Resultados: Se obtuvieron datos de un total de 426 pacientes cuya edad media fue de 83,2 años (52,6% varones). El 34,7% fallecieron en el hospital y el 4,5% antes de un mes tras el alta hospitalaria. Los factores relacionados con la mortalidad fueron: peor situación funcional basal, enfermedad renal crónica y fiebre o disnea como formas de presentación. Los síntomas típicos más frecuentes fueron: fiebre, disnea, tos, astenia e hiporexia. Hasta el 42,1% presentaron delirium como síntoma de inicio atípico. Se objetivó un deterioro funcional que no se recuperó al mes de seguimiento (índice de Barthel basal 81,12; 70,08 al alta; 75,55 al mes). Conclusiones: La infección por SARS-CoV-2 ha provocado elevadas tasas de mortalidad en las personas mayores. En este grupo etario, es frecuente la forma de presentación atípica de esta enfermedad y el deterioro funcional durante la hospitalización. En el presente estudio se ha identificado un peor estado funcional previo como predictor de mortalidad. Son necesarios más estudios que evalúen el impacto que la enfermedad y la hospitalización tienen en el paciente mayor...(AU)

Background: The objective of the present study is to analyze the epidemiological, clinical and functional characteristics of patients admitted to the University Hospital of Navarra due to SARS-CoV-2 infection, as well as the predictors of mortality, during the first wave of the pandemic caused by this virus. Methodology: An observational, retrospective study was performed, including all hospitalized patients older than 75 years. Information has been obtained on multiple variables, among which it is worth mentioning previous geriatric syndromes or those that have appeared during hospitalization, or past medical history considered relevant in SARS-CoV-2 infection. A descriptive analysis of the data, comparisons according to various factors of interest and multivariate analysis to analyze factors associated with mortality were carried out. Results: Data have been obtained from a total of 426 patients with a mean age of 83.2 years (52.6% men). 34.7% died in hospital and 4.5% within 1 month after hospital discharge. The factors related to mortality were: worse baseline functional status, chronic kidney disease, and fever or dyspnea as forms of presentation. The most frequent typical symptoms were: fever, dyspnea, cough, asthenia and hyporexia. Up to 42.1% presented delirium as a symptom of atypical onset. We observed a functional deterioration that was not recover after a month of follow-up (baseline Barthel index 81.12; 70.08 at discharge; 75.55 after a month). Conclusions: SARS-CoV-2 infection has caused high mortality rates in older adults. In this age group, the atypical presentation of this disease and functional deterioration during hospitalization are frequent. In the present study, a worse previous functional status has been identified as a predictor of mortality. More studies are needed to evaluate the impact that the disease and hospitalization have on the older patient...(AU)

Impacto de la pandemia de COVID-19 en las tendencias de mortalidad por enfermedades cardiovasculares en México, 2000-2022 / Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on cardiovascular disease mortality trends in Mexico, 2000–2022

Objetivo: Estimar el impacto de la pandemia de COVID-19 en tendencia de la mortalidad por enfermedad cardiovascular (ECV) en México. Métodos: Se realizó un estudio ecológico donde se analizaron las defunciones por ECV reportadas en México bajo la clasificación CIE-10 con los códigos I10 al I99 para el periodo 2000 al 2022. Se calcularon las tasas de mortalidad estandarizadas por edad a nivel nacional y estatal, y posteriormente se estimó la variación porcentual anual mediante el análisis de joinpoint para conocer los cambios en la tendencia de la mortalidad en el periodo estudiado. Resultados: Se presentó un incremento de 27,96 muertes por cada 100.000 habitantes del 2000 al 2022 en México. El análisis joinpoint muestra en el periodo 2019 a 2021 un cambio porcentual anual a nivel nacional de 17.398, y posteriormente se presenta una tendencia negativa entre los años 2021-2022. Los estados como Guanajuato, Tlaxcala y Querétaro mostraron los mayores incrementos en las tendencias de la mortalidad por ECV durante la pandemia por COVID-19. Conclusiones: La tendencia de la mortalidad por ECV en México se incrementó de manera importante durante la pandemia por COVID-19.(AU)

Objective: To estimate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality trends in Mexico. Methods: An ecological study was conducted where deaths from CVD reported in Mexico under the ICD-10 classification with codes I10 to I99 for the period 2000–2022 were analyzed. Age-standardized mortality rates were calculated at the national and state levels, then the annual percentage variation was estimated using joinpoint analysis to know the changes in the mortality trend in the period studied. Results: There was an increase of 27.96 deaths per 100,000 inhabitants from 2000 to 2022 in Mexico. The joinpoint analysis shows in the period 2019–2021 an annual percentage change at the national level of 17,398 and subsequently a negative trend is presented between the years 2021–2022. The states of Guanajuato, Tlaxcala and Querétaro showed the largest increases in CVD mortality trends during the COVID-19 pandemic. Conclusions: The trend in CVD mortality in Mexico increased significantly during the COVID-19 pandemic.(AU)

Factors associated with non-carbapenemase mediated carbapenem resistance of Gram-negative bacteria: a retrospective case-control study

Infections with carbapenemase-producing Gram-negative bacteria are related to increased morbidity and mortality, yet little is known regarding infections caused by non-beta-lactamase mediated carbapenem-resistant bacteria. Our objective was to identify risk factors for, and the clinical impact of infections caused by carbapenem-resistant carbapenemase-negative Enterobacterales and Pseudomonas aeruginosa. This retrospective matched case-control study was performed at the University Hospital of Basel, Switzerland, in 2016. We focused on other resistance mechanisms by excluding laboratory-confirmed carbapenemase-positive cases. Carbapenem resistance was set as the primary endpoint, and important risk factors were investigated by conditional logistic regression. The clinical impact of carbapenem resistance was estimated using regression models containing the resistance indicator as explanatory factor and adjusting for potential confounders. Seventy-five cases of infections with carbapenem-resistant, carbapenemase-negative bacteria were identified and matched with 75 controls with carbapenem-susceptible infections. The matched data set was well-balanced regarding age, gender, and comorbidity. Duration of prior carbapenem treatment (OR 1.15, [1.01, 1.31]) correlated with resistance to carbapenems. Our study showed that patients with carbapenem-resistant bacteria stayed 1.59 times (CI [0.81, 3.14]) longer in an ICU. The analyzed dataset did not provide evidence for strong clinical implications of resistance to carbapenems or increased mortality. The duration of prior carbapenem treatment seems to be a strong risk factor for the development of carbapenem resistance. The higher risk for a longer ICU stay could be a consequence of a carbapenem resistance. In contrast to carbapenemase-producers, the clinical impact of carbapenamase-negative, carbapenem-resistant strains may be limited... (AU)

Prognostic value of anti-IFI16 autoantibodies in pulmonary arterial hypertension and mortality in patients with systemic sclerosis / Valor pronóstico de los autoanticuerpos anti-IFI16 en la hipertensión arterial pulmonar y en la mortalidad en los pacientes con esclerodermia sistémica

Objectives: To determine the diagnostic value of anti-interferon gamma inducible protein 16 (IFI16) autoantibodies in systemic sclerosis (SSc) patients negative for all tested SSc-specific autoantibodies (SSc-seronegative patients) and to evaluate the clinical significance of these autoantibodies, whether isolated or in the presence of anti-centromere autoantibodies (ACA). Methods: Overall, 58 SSc-seronegative and 66 ACA-positive patients were included in the study. All patients were tested for anti-IFI16 autoantibodies by an in-house direct ELISA. Associations between clinical parameters and anti-IFI16 autoantibodies were analysed. Results: Overall, 17.2% of SSc-seronegative and 39.4% of ACA-positive patients were positive for anti-IFI16 autoantibodies. Anti-IFI16 autoantibodies were found only in patients within the limited cutaneous SSc (lcSSc) subset. A positive association between anti-IFI16 positivity and isolated pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH) was found (odds ratio [OR]=5.07; p=0.014) even after adjusting for ACA status (OR=4.99; p=0.019). Anti-IFI16-positive patients were found to have poorer overall survival than negative patients (p=0.032). Cumulative survival rates at 10, 20 and 30 years were 96.9%, 92.5% and 68.7% for anti-IFI16-positive patients vs. 98.8%, 97.0% and 90.3% for anti-IFI16-negative-patients, respectively. Anti-IFI16-positive patients also had worse overall survival than anti-IFI16-negative patients after adjusting for ACA status in the multivariate Cox analysis (hazard ratio [HR]=3.21; p=0.043). Conclusion: Anti-IFI16 autoantibodies were associated with isolated PAH and poorer overall survival. Anti-IFI16 autoantibodies could be used as a supplementary marker of lcSSc in SSc-seronegative patients and for identifying ACA-positive patients with worse clinical outcome. (AU)

Objetivos: Determinar el valor diagnóstico de los autoanticuerpos anti-interferon gamma inducible protein 16 (IFI16) en los pacientes con esclerodermia sistémica (SSc) negativos para todos los autoanticuerpos específicos de SSc (pacientes SSc seronegativos) y evaluar el significado clínico de estos autoanticuerpos, aislados o en combinación con autoanticuerpos anticentrómero (ACA). Métodos: Se incluyeron 58 pacientes SSc seronegativos y 66 pacientes ACA positivos. Todos los pacientes se testaron para los autoanticuerpos anti-IFI16 mediante un ELISA directo «in-house». Las asociaciones entre parámetros clínicos y los autoanticuerpos anti-IFI16 fueron analizadas. Resultados: En total, el 17,2% de los pacientes SSc seronegativos y el 39,4% de los pacientes ACA positivos fueron positivos para anti-IFI16. Los autoanticuerpos anti-IFI16 se detectaron solamente en los pacientes con la forma limitada cutánea de SSc (lcSSc). Se encontró una asociación entre la positividad de anti-IFI16 y la hipertensión arterial pulmonar (HAP) aislada (odds ratio [OR]: 5,07; p=0,014), incluso cuando se ajustó el análisis a la presencia o ausencia de ACA (OR: 4,99; p=0,019). Los pacientes anti-IFI16 positivos mostraron una peor supervivencia general que los pacientes negativos (p=0,032). Las ratios de supervivencia acumulada a 10, 20 y 30 años fueron respectivamente del 96,9, 92,5 y 68,7% para los pacientes anti-IFI16 positivos frente al 98,8, 97,0 y 90,3% para los anti-IFI16 negativos. Los pacientes anti-IFI16 positivos también tenían una supervivencia general menor que los pacientes anti-IFI16 negativos tras ajustar para la presencia o ausencia de ACA mediante análisis multivariado de Cox (hazard ratio [HR]: 3,21; p=0,043)... (AU)

[The mortality of children population].

The article presents comprehensive medical statistical analysis of indicators and causes of mortality of children population of the Russian Federation in 2017-2021. It is emphasized that in Russia, in conditions of extremely unfavorable demographic situation, the hyper actual task is to preserve life of every child. It is demonstrated that crucial role in mortality of children population is played by not only infant mortality and mortality of children aged 1-4 years, but also by mortality of children of older ages. The children population mortality still keeps gender and residence differences. The problem of reliable registration of infant mortality is to be revisited since part of newborns born alive are classified after birth as stillborn. Beginning from 2018, the first place was taken by the class "Injuries, poisonings and some other consequences of external causes" driving back the class "Individual conditions occurring in perinatal period". Thus, measures of preventing negative impact of social factors on children health continue to be an important component of modern system of health care of children population. The directions of measures reducing children mortality in Russia are proposed.

[The gender aspects of changes in mortality during COVID-19 pandemic as exemplified by Moscow].

The mortality is a major component of damage caused by COVID-19. The comparative analysis of changes in mortality was carried out on the basis of the ROSSTAT data over 2012-2020 to determine differences in losses of male and female population caused by pandemic in Moscow. It is demonstrated that at close trends in mortality of males and females before pandemic, in 2020 their mortality changed differently. At equal increase of male and female mortality, main contribution into excess mortality (excluding contribution of COVID-19) was made approximately equally by diseases of nervous system and circulatory system in males and diseases of nervous system in females. The male mortality from COVID-19 is 1.9 times higher than female mortality. As a result of younger average age of death the amount of economic losses in terms of years of potential life lost (PYLL) due to premature death of males because of COVID-19 exceeds economic losses due to premature death of females up to 2 times. Although the average age of death of females from all causes decreased by smaller amount, their values of PYLL increased more, mainly due to higher rate of female mortality from disease of nervous system and from mortality related to drug addiction. In Moscow, the highest increase of PYLL is conditioned by dearth related to drug addiction and alcohol consumption. In the structure of this indicator in males they are ranked fourth and fifth. In females, alcohol-related deaths are ranked as sixth and drug-related deaths as eighth. The pandemic, contributing into increase in economic losses, didn't change their leading causes: diseases of circulatory system, external causes and neoplasms in males; neoplasms, diseases of circulatory system and external causes in females. The value of PYLL due to death from COVID-19 takes sixth place in males and fourth place in females.

Trends in parkinson's disease mortality in China from 2004 to 2021: a joinpoint analysis.

BACKGROUND: This study aimed to analyze the trends of Parkinson's disease (PD) mortality rates among Chinese residents from 2004 to 2021, provide evidence for the formulation of PD prevention and control strategies to improve the quality of life among PD residents. METHODS: Demographic and sociological data such as gender, urban or rural residency and age were obtained from the National Cause of Death Surveillance Dataset from 2004 to 2021. We then analyzed the trends of PD mortality rates by Joinpoint regression. RESULTS: The PD mortality and standardized mortality rates in China showed an overall increasing trend during 2004-2021 (average annual percentage change [AAPC] = 7.14%, AAPCASMR=3.21%, P < 0.001). The mortality and standardized mortality rate in male (AAPC = 7.65%, AAPCASMR=3.18%, P < 0.001) were higher than that of female (AAPC = 7.03%, AAPCASMR=3.09%, P < 0.001). The PD standardized mortality rates of urban (AAPC = 5.13%, AAPCASMR=1.76%, P < 0.001) and rural (AAPC = 8.40%, AAPCASMR=4.29%, P < 0.001) residents both increased gradually. In the age analysis, the mortality rate increased with age. And the mortality rates of those aged > 85 years was the highest. Considering gender, female aged > 85 years had the fastest mortality trend (annual percentage change [APC] = 5.69%, P < 0.001). Considering urban/rural, rural aged 80-84 years had the fastest mortality trend (APC = 6.68%, P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: The mortality rate of PD among Chinese residents increased from 2004 to 2021. Male sex, urban residence and age > 85 years were risk factors for PD-related death and should be the primary focus for PD prevention.

Cuantificación de la carga de la enfermedad renal crónica en América Latina: una epidemia invisibilizada / Quantification of the burden of chronic kidney disease in Latin America: an invisible epidemic / Quantificação da carga da doença renal crônica na América Latina: uma epidemia invisível

[RESUMEN]. Objetivo. 1) Describir la carga de la enfermedad renal crónica en países de América Latina entre 1990 y 2019 y, 2) Estimar la correlación entre los años de vida saludables perdidos (AVISA) con el índice sociodemográfico y el índice de acceso y calidad de salud. Métodos. Análisis secundario y ecológico, basado en el Estudio de la Carga Global de Enfermedades, Lesiones y Factores de Riesgo 2019. Se reportaron las tasas estandarizadas de mortalidad, años perdidos por muertes prematuras (APMP), años de vida ajustados por discapacidad (AVAD) y AVISA por enfermedad renal crónica para 1990, 2005 y 2019. La información se desagregó por países, sexo, grupos etarios y subcausas. Resultados. Entre 1990 y 2019, la carga de la enfermedad renal crónica aumentó considerablemente en los países de América Latina, convirtiéndose en una de las principales causas de mortalidad y de AVISA. La tasa estandarizada de AVISA por enfermedad renal crónica se debió, en gran medida, al peso de las muertes prematuras más que a la discapacidad. En 2019, Nicaragua, El Salvador, México y Guatemala se destacaron por tener las tasas estandarizadas de mortalidad por enfermedad renal crónica y de AVISA más elevadas, mientras que Uruguay presentó las más bajas. Conclusiones. La enfermedad renal crónica es una epidemia invisibilizada que representa una carga excesiva, en mortalidad y AVISA, para los países de América Latina. Es indispensable aunar esfuerzos regionales para enfrentar la enfermedad, además de impulsar acciones locales que atiendan las particularidades de cada país.

[ABSTRACT]. Objective. 1) Describe the burden of chronic kidney disease in Latin American countries between 1990 and 2019; and 2) Estimate the correlation between disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and the Sociodemogra- phic Index and the Healthcare Access and Quality Index. Methods. Secondary and ecological analysis, based on the 2019 Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries and Risk Factors Study. Standardized mortality rates, years of life lost to due to premature death (YLLs),years of healthy life lost due to disability (YLDs) and DALYs due to chronic kidney disease were reported for 1990, 2005, and 2019. Information was disaggregated by country, sex, age group, and sub-cause. Results. Between 1990 and 2019, the burden of chronic kidney disease increased considerably in Latin Ame- rican countries, becoming one of the main causes of mortality and DALYs. The standardized rate of DALYs for chronic kidney disease was largely due to the weight of premature deaths rather than disability. In 2019, Nica- ragua, El Salvador, Mexico, and Guatemala had the highest standardized mortality rates for chronic kidney disease and DALYs, while Uruguay had the lowest. Conclusions. Chronic kidney disease is an invisible epidemic that places an excessive burden in terms of mortality and DALYs on Latin American countries. It is essential to join forces to tackle the disease in the region, and promote local actions that address the particularities of each country.

[RESUMO]. Objetivo. 1) Descrever a carga da doença renal crônica nos países da América Latina entre 1990 e 2019 e 2) estimar a correlação entre os anos de vida saudável perdidos (AVISA), o índice sociodemográfico e o índice de acesso e qualidade da saúde. Métodos. Análise secundária e ecológica, baseada no estudo Carga Global de Doenças, Lesões e Fatores de Risco 2019 (GBD). Foram informadas taxas de mortalidade padronizadas, anos de vida perdidos por morte prematura (AVP) por morte prematura, anos de vida ajustados por incapacidade (AVAI) e AVISA devido a doença renal crônica de 1990, 2005 e 2019. Os dados foram desagregados por país, sexo, faixas etárias e causas subjacentes. Resultados. Entre 1990 e 2019, a carga de doença renal crônica aumentou consideravelmente nos países da América Latina, tornando-se uma das principais causas de mortalidade e de AVISA. A taxa padronizada de AVISA devido à doença renal crônica foi influenciada em grande parte pelo peso das mortes prematuras, e não da incapacidade. Em 2019, Nicarágua, El Salvador, México e Guatemala se destacaram por terem as maiores taxas padronizadas de mortalidade por doença renal crônica e AVISA, ao passo que Uruguai teve as menores taxas. Conclusões. A doença renal crônica é uma epidemia invisível, que representa uma carga excessiva em ter- mos de mortalidade e de AVISA para os países da América Latina. É essencial unir esforços na região para combater a doença, além de promover ações locais que atendam às particularidades de cada país.

Projection of Mortality Burden Attributable to Nonoptimum Temperature with High Spatial Resolution in China.

The updated climate models provide projections at a fine scale, allowing us to estimate health risks due to future warming after accounting for spatial heterogeneity. Here, we utilized an ensemble of high-resolution (25 km) climate simulations and nationwide mortality data from 306 Chinese cities to estimate death anomalies attributable to future warming. Historical estimation (1986-2014) reveals that about 15.5% [95% empirical confidence interval (eCI):13.1%, 17.6%] of deaths are attributable to nonoptimal temperature, of which heat and cold corresponded to attributable fractions of 4.1% (eCI:2.4%, 5.5%) and 11.4% (eCI:10.7%, 12.1%), respectively. Under three climate scenarios (SSP126, SSP245, and SSP585), the national average temperature was projected to increase by 1.45, 2.57, and 4.98 °C by the 2090s, respectively. The corresponding mortality fractions attributable to heat would be 6.5% (eCI:5.2%, 7.7%), 7.9% (eCI:6.3%, 9.4%), and 11.4% (eCI:9.2%, 13.3%). More than half of the attributable deaths due to future warming would occur in north China and cardiovascular mortality would increase more drastically than respiratory mortality. Our study shows that the increased heat-attributable mortality burden would outweigh the decreased cold-attributable burden even under a moderate climate change scenario across China. The results are helpful for national or local policymakers to better address the challenges of future warming.

Mortality Burden Due to Short-term Exposure to Fine Particulate Matter in Korea.

OBJECTIVES: Excess mortality associated with long-term exposure to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) has been documented. However, research on the disease burden following short-term exposure is scarce. We investigated the cause-specific mortality burden of short-term exposure to PM2.5 by considering the potential non-linear concentration-response relationship in Korea. METHODS: Daily cause-specific mortality rates and PM2.5 exposure levels from 2010 to 2019 were collected for 8 Korean cities and 9 provinces. A generalized additive mixed model was employed to estimate the non-linear relationship between PM2.5 exposure and cause-specific mortality levels. We assumed no detrimental health effects of PM2.5 concentrations below 15 µg/m3. Overall deaths attributable to short-term PM2.5 exposure were estimated by summing the daily numbers of excess deaths associated with ambient PM2.5 exposure. RESULTS: Of the 2 749 704 recorded deaths, 2 453 686 (89.2%) were non-accidental, 591 267 (21.5%) were cardiovascular, and 141 066 (5.1%) were respiratory in nature. A non-linear relationship was observed between all-cause mortality and exposure to PM2.5 at lag0, whereas linear associations were evident for cause-specific mortalities. Overall, 10 814 all-cause, 7855 non-accidental, 1642 cardiovascular, and 708 respiratory deaths were attributed to short-term exposure to PM2.5. The estimated number of all-cause excess deaths due to short-term PM2.5 exposure in 2019 was 1039 (95% confidence interval, 604 to 1472). CONCLUSIONS: Our findings indicate an association between short-term PM2.5 exposure and various mortality rates (all-cause, non-accidental, cardiovascular, and respiratory) in Korea over the period from 2010 to 2019. Consequently, action plans should be developed to reduce deaths attributable to short-term exposure to PM2.5.

Exploring Patterns of Human Mortality and Aging: A Reliability Theory Viewpoint.

The most important manifestation of aging is an increased risk of death with advancing age, a mortality pattern characterized by empirical regularities known as mortality laws. We highlight three significant ones: the Gompertz law, compensation effect of mortality (CEM), and late-life mortality deceleration and describe new developments in this area. It is predicted that CEM should result in declining relative variability of mortality at older ages. The quiescent phase hypothesis of negligible actuarial aging at younger adult ages is tested and refuted by analyzing mortality of the most recent birth cohorts. To comprehend the aging mechanisms, it is crucial to explain the observed empirical mortality patterns. As an illustrative example of data-directed modeling and the insights it provides, we briefly describe two different reliability models applied to human mortality patterns. The explanation of aging using a reliability theory approach aligns with evolutionary theories of aging, including idea of chronic phenoptosis. This alignment stems from their focus on elucidating the process of organismal deterioration itself, rather than addressing the reasons why organisms are not designed for perpetual existence. This article is a part of a special issue of the journal that commemorates the legacy of the eminent Russian scientist Vladimir Petrovich Skulachev (1935-2023) and his bold ideas about evolution of biological aging and phenoptosis.

The Healthy Eating Index-2015 and All-Cause/Cause-Specific Mortality: A Systematic Review and Dose-Response Meta-Analysis.

This meta-analysis was undertaken to determine the predictive value of Healthy Eating Index (HEI)-2015 in all-cause, cancer-cause, and cardiovascular disease (CVD)-cause mortality. This review was registered with PROSPERO as CRD42023421585. PubMed and Web of Science were searched for articles published by September 15, 2023. The hazard ratio (HR) was calculated with exact confidence intervals (CIs) of 95%. Statistical heterogeneity among studies was measured by Cochran's Q test (χ2) and the I2 statistic. Eighteen published studies were finally identified in this meta-analysis. The results showed that the HEI-2015 was associated with all-cause mortality either as a categorical variable (HR: 0.80; 95% CI: 0.79, 0.82) or continuous variable (HR: 0.90; 95% CI: 0.88, 0.92). The HEI-2015 was also associated with cancer-cause mortality as categorical variable (HR: 0.81; 95% CI: 0.78, 0.83) or continuous variable (HR: 0.90; 95% CI: 0.81, 0.99). The categorical HEI-2015 was also independently correlated with decreasing CVD-cause mortality (HR: 0.81; 95% CI: 0.75, 0.87). A nonlinear dose-response relation between the HEI-2015 and all-cause mortality was found. In the linear dose-response analysis, the risk of mortality from cancer decreased by 0.42% per 1 score increment of the HEI-2015 and the risk of CVD-cause mortality decreased by 0.51% with the increment of the HEI-2015 per 1 score. Our analysis indicated a significant relationship between the HEI-2015 and all-cause, cancer-cause, and CVD-cause mortality.

Mortality in women with a history of incarceration in Norway: a 20-year national cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Women carry a substantial burden of psychiatric, somatic and lifestyle-related morbidity in the prison context. By describing causes of death and estimating the risk and burden of mortality compared with the general population, this study investigates how mortality operates in this highly marginalized and under-researched population. METHODS: In this registry-based study of all women incarcerated in Norwegian prisons from 2000 to 2019 (N = 11 313), we calculated crude mortality rates, years of lost life and, by using mortality in age-matched women from the general population as a reference, age-standardized mortality ratios and years of lost life rates. RESULTS: Over a mean follow-up time of 10.7 years, at a median age of 50 years, 9% of the population had died (n = 1005). Most deaths (80%) were premature deaths from an avoidable cause. Drug-induced causes and deaths from major non-communicable diseases (NCDs) were most frequent (both 32%). Compared with women in the general population, women with a history of incarceration were more likely to die from any cause. Trends in annual age-standardized years of lost life rates suggest that the mortality burden associated with major NCDs has gradually replaced drug-induced causes. CONCLUSIONS: Women with a history of incarceration die at a greater rate than their peers and largely from avoidable causes. The profile of causes contributing to the substantial burden of mortality placed on this population has changed over time and has important implications for future efforts to reduce morbidity and the risk of premature death following release from prison.

Socioeconomic inequalities in avoidable mortality in Italy: results from a nationwide longitudinal cohort.

BACKGROUND: Disparities in avoidable mortality have never been evaluated in Italy at the national level. The present study aimed to assess the association between socioeconomic status and avoidable mortality. METHODS: The nationwide closed cohort of the 2011 Census of Population and Housing was followed up for 2012-2019 mortality. Outcomes of preventable and of treatable mortality were separately evaluated among people aged 30-74. Education level (elementary school or less, middle school, high school diploma, university degree or more) and residence macro area (North-West, North-East, Center, South-Islands) were the exposures, for which adjusted mortality rate ratios (MRRs) were calculated through multivariate quasi-Poisson regression models, adjusted for age at death. Relative index of inequalities was estimated for preventable, treatable, and non-avoidable mortality and for some specific causes. RESULTS: The cohort consisted of 35,708,459 residents (48.8% men, 17.5% aged 65-74), 34% with a high school diploma, 33.5% living in the South-Islands; 1,127,760 deaths were observed, of which 65.2% for avoidable causes (40.4% preventable and 24.9% treatable). Inverse trends between education level and mortality were observed for all causes; comparing the least with the most educated groups, a strong association was observed for preventable (males MRR = 2.39; females MRR = 1.65) and for treatable causes of death (males MRR = 1.93; females MRR = 1.45). The greatest inequalities were observed for HIV/AIDS and alcohol-related diseases (both sexes), drug-related diseases and tuberculosis (males), and diabetes mellitus, cardiovascular diseases, and renal failure (females). Excess risk of preventable and of treatable mortality were observed for the South-Islands. CONCLUSIONS: Socioeconomic inequalities in mortality persist in Italy, with an extremely varied response to policies at the regional level, representing a possible missed gain in health and suggesting a reassessment of priorities and definition of health targets.

Examining Excess Mortality Associated With the COVID-19 Pandemic for Renters Threatened With Eviction.

Importance: Residential evictions may have increased excess mortality associated with the COVID-19 pandemic. Objective: To estimate excess mortality associated with the COVID-19 pandemic for renters who received eviction filings (threatened renters). Design, Setting, and Participants: This retrospective cohort study used an excess mortality framework. Mortality based on linked eviction and death records from 2020 through 2021 was compared with projected mortality estimated from similar records from 2010 through 2016. Data from court records between January 1, 2020, and August 31, 2021, were collected via the Eviction Lab's Eviction Tracking System. Similar data from court records between January 1, 2010, and December 31, 2016, also collected by the Eviction Lab, were used to estimate projected mortality during the pandemic. We also constructed 2 comparison groups: all individuals living in the study area and a subsample of those individuals living in high-poverty, high-filing tracts. Exposures: Eviction filing. Main Outcomes and Measures: All-cause mortality in a given month. The difference between observed mortality and projected mortality was used as a measure of excess mortality associated with the pandemic. Results: The cohort of threatened renters during the pandemic period consisted of 282 000 individuals (median age, 36 years [IQR, 28-47]). Eviction filings were 44.7% lower than expected during the study period. The composition of threatened renters by race, ethnicity, sex, and socioeconomic characteristics during the pandemic was comparable with the prepandemic composition. Expected cumulative age-standardized mortality among threatened renters during this 20-month period of the pandemic was 116.5 (95% CI, 104.0-130.3) per 100 000 person-months, and observed mortality was 238.6 (95% CI, 230.8-246.3) per 100 000 person-months or 106% higher than expected. In contrast, expected mortality for the population living in similar neighborhoods was 114.6 (95% CI, 112.1-116.8) per 100 000 person-months, and observed mortality was 142.8 (95% CI, 140.2-145.3) per 100 000 person-months or 25% higher than expected. In the general population across the study area, expected mortality was 83.5 (95% CI, 83.3-83.8) per 100 000 person-months, and observed mortality was 91.6 (95% CI, 91.4-91.8) per 100 000 person-months or 9% higher than expected. The pandemic produced positive excess mortality ratios across all age groups among threatened renters. Conclusions and Relevance: Renters who received eviction filings experienced substantial excess mortality associated with the COVID-19 pandemic.